Imagine you are a PM at Heckyl. Define the data you need to collect.

Heckyl provides mainly 5 services – News Analysis, Market Analysis, Sentiment Analysis, Global Market Trends, Predictive Data Analysis.

Market related data:

1. Financial Data:

Index performance data, Individual stock performance data, Key data such as cash flow, net profit, dividend, EPS from Company’s Quarterly or Annual earnings call, Macroeconomic data such as Central Bank Interest Rate, Inflation data, GDP, Industrial Output Data, Currency Exchange rates; Analyst target; Retail Investor vs HNI investors; Rating my credible agencies, Commodity Price specially Oil Price.

2. Non Financial Data:

News related to any particular listed stock such as CEO change/ exit/ death, Board of Director appointments, M&A, litigation or scandals, new contracts or product launched, competitor performance ; News related to any particular industry such as Govt policy change; Central Bank reports; IPO announcements or Going Private ; Political News; Elon Musk tweets; Reddit investors; Other Social Media Mentions; Tech breakthroughs; Weather Report ; Natural or Man Made catastrophe.

Heckyl website/ platform related data:

1. Web Metrics – No. of web pages served, Unique IP address visitors

2. Clickstream – Track user activity, user browser patterns.

3. Web Analytics – Analytics and analysis of Web Metrics.

Imagine you are a PM at Heckyl. Define the data strategies for data collection.

Partner with existing data providers who provide standard data.

  • Identify credible sources of data and also scout for new sources of data.

  • Collect required data by building applications and innovative technological solutions for data gathering.

  • Convert non financial data into financial impact.

To build a predictive analysis model that Heckyl offers, list some independent variables. Additionally list Dependent variables.

  1. Independent Variables:

    • Financial results – Cash Flow, Earnings, P/E, Dividend (Some of the data may be correlated and hence the best independent variable will be selected based on assessment)

    • Index Performance/ Volatility – S&P / NSE.

    • Closing price of the stock

    • Macro economic data – Interest rate, GDP.

    • Systematic Risk Events – 100 year floods, Coronavirus etc

    • News sentiment related to a particular stock scaled from -10 to 10. -10 being very adverse and +10 being very favourable.

    • Policy shift related to the company scaled from -10 to 10. -10 being very adverse and +10 being very favourable.

Dependent Variable:

  • Investor Interest in the stock
  • Stock Price

Use these variables to create a Regression Model.

Disclaimer : Predicting stock price is next to impossible. A simplified linear regression model is as below.

Stock Price = A + B1*Financial Results + B2*Index Performance – B3*Volatility + B4*Closing Price of Stock – B5* Interest Rate + B6* GDP – B7* Systematic Risk + B8* News Sentiment + B9* Policy Shift

Define some of the web analytics measures you would use to measure the success of Heckyl and alter the financial insight on a daily basis?